Your garage
This is your rollout percentile — where your car historically lands in each wave. Log your real update history below and wenFSD estimates it for you.
The Early Access Program puts you in the first wave — wenFSD shifts your effective percentile accordingly. (The Advanced vs Standard update toggle, by contrast, makes little measurable difference to timing in practice, so we don't factor it in.)
Rollout S-curve
When exactly? probability by day
Make your guess 🎯
Pick the day you think your car updates. wenFSD scores it against the full probability model.
FSD versions by region & hardware
FSD is a separate track from the OS version, and rollout depends on both region (regulatory approval) and hardware (HW3/AI3 is capped; HW4/AI4 gets the latest). The stats below reflect your car's region & hardware.
Release notes what's in each build · newest first
OS rollout by region how far behind the US wave each market runs
Tesla seeds new builds in the US first, then expands geographically (partly to surface road-sign / regulation differences). Right-hand-drive markets typically lag. ETA shown is for a typical car (50th percentile) in each region.
AU fleet firmware tracker sample distribution
| Version | Status | AU fleet | 7-day velocity | First seen | FSD build (AI4) | Notes |
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Live update feed
Why wenFSD beats the trackers
- Teslascope · TeslaFi · Tessie · fleetctrl · teslaupdates are all observational — install counts, % of fleet, daily velocity, status. None tell you when your car is next.
- wenFSD predicts: a logistic S-curve (matching Tesla's staged, VIN-based A/B rollout), placed by your rollout percentile, then Monte Carlo → a real date distribution + 80% band.
- It models what actually moves your spot in line: your Advanced/Standard update channel & Early Access, your hardware (HW3 capped, HW4 latest), your region's regulatory status, and Tesla's measured ~monthly cadence.
- Two tracks, tied together: next OS build and next FSD version — and since FSD ships inside OS builds, FSD can't arrive before the build that carries it.
- You can guess and get scored against the model's probability distribution.