wenFSD
Tesla update & FSD rollout intelligence · global
Today
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Predict your next Tesla software & FSD update — no login required

The next OTA update for your Tesla — including FSD (Supervised) v14 — as a real probability date with an 80% window. Not “two weeks.” Not “soon™.” An actual date, with error bars. How your data is handled →

⚡ Get your prediction in 10 seconds

No login. No VIN. Nothing leaves your browser. Just pick your car and your current software version — that's all we need to predict your next software and FSD update.

Want it to update itself? · or · or .
📍 Your prediction
Predicted arrival on your car
🔧 Next software update 📡 prediction
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🧠 Next FSD update 📡 prediction
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Why two dates? FSD ships inside software builds — but most builds don't change FSD.

So your next software update might bump FSD too (we'll flag it ✅), or it might be a maintenance build that leaves FSD exactly where it is. We predict both: the next software update, and the next build that actually moves your FSD. Both are our modelled guesses, not Tesla announcements.

🔧 How sure are we about the software date?
🎯 We're 80% confident it lands in the window above. Here's how the odds stack up as the days tick by — early ones are low because, well, it's early:

How is this calculated?
🧠 What about your FSD version?
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days
⏱️ until your next software update, most likely

Your garage

AI4 · HW4
2026 Model Y · Juniper
Australia · RHD
🎚️ Your spot in Tesla's queue first-wave royalty or perpetually last? Tune it and find out — it sharpens the date 👑

Your rollout percentile — where your car sits in the queue while Tesla decides if you're worthy. Log your update history below and wenFSD estimates it, so you can find out if you're "first wave royalty" or "perpetually last, with the HW3 crowd". 👑

Early Access puts you in the first wave (and on a first-name basis with regression bugs). Recent delivery nudges you earlier — fresh cars sit nearer the front of the queue, like the new kid everyone's curious about.

Your update history
    🔗 Auto-track & contribute optional — connect for live alerts, or stay manual and keep refreshing like a gremlin 😈
    — or, for live alerts the second it lands —

    Stop refreshing the software menu at 2am. Connect read-only and we'll ping you the second your update lands. Tesla's official OAuth; we only ever read your software version, never your location. Rather grant nothing? Add by VIN needs no login at all.

    Rollout S-curve

    the fleet, adopting 80% window (the honest bit) you, statistically 📍

    When exactly? probability by day

    the model's best guess 🎯 your hot take

    Call your shot 🎯 wen, exactly?

    Bet on the day your car updates. Pick your nerve — the bolder the call, the bigger the bragging rights (and the more spectacular the faceplant). It's "two weeks, trust me bro" but with a paper trail. 🎲

    🫂 Community

    📡 Seen a rollout change? pause, halt, or it's-rolling-again — tell us

    Got an email or saw word that a rollout was paused / pulled / resumed? Report it and we'll review it. Confirmed changes update everyone's prediction — nothing goes live until a human checks it, so a prankster can't move the model.

    The Five Stages of wenFSD Grief a clinical assessment

    Waiting for a Tesla update is a recognised form of bereavement. Dr. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross gave us five stages; Tesla gave us a reason to feel all of them. We predict where you are. You tell us where you really are. Then we all grieve together. 🕯️

    wen Leaderboard 🏆

    🔬 How it works & trust
    Why wenFSD beats the trackers (humbly)

    …okay, fine, here's the actual pitch:

    • Teslascope · TeslaFi · Tessie · fleetctrl · teslaupdates are all observational — install counts, % of fleet, daily velocity, status. Wonderful data. But they tell you what already happened to other people. That's a history book. You wanted a fortune teller. 🔮
    • wenFSD predicts: a logistic S-curve (matching Tesla's staged, VIN-based A/B rollout), placed by your rollout percentile, then Monte Carlo'd into a real date distribution + 80% band. It's maths cosplaying as hope.
    • It models what actually moves your spot in line: your Early Access setting, your hardware (HW3 = capped, sorry; HW4 = latest), your region's regulatory mood, and Tesla's measured cadence. Everything except Elon's Twitter feelings — those are unmodellable.
    • Two tracks, tied together: next OS build and next FSD version — and since FSD rides inside OS builds, FSD literally cannot arrive before the build carrying it. Anyone promising otherwise is selling something. 🐍
    • You can guess and get scored against the model's probability distribution — then take your bragging rights to the forums where they belong. 🏆
    • Honest to a fault: every modelled number is badged as modelled. We will not look you in the eye and invent a fleet statistic. That's a different company's job. 📦
    🔬 The model — open, and yours to tinker with no black box

    We don't want you to trust us — we want you to check us. The whole prediction model is open. Pull it apart, find where it's wrong, and help make it better.

    📐 Full calibration detail cadence · velocity · coverage · back-test
    View the raw model (JSON) Read the source on GitHub

    The spreadsheet has a live calculator: change your rollout percentile, the curve steepness, or the region lag, and the predicted date recomputes. It's the real model, simplified to closed form so you can play with it.

    🤓 How the prediction works (the actual maths)
    • The curve. Tesla pushes each build as a staged, VIN-based rollout — slow start, steep middle, long tail. We fit a logistic S-curve: a build reaches ~50% of the eligible fleet at its midpoint t0, with steepness k.
    • Your spot. Your rollout percentile p is where your car tends to land in each wave (first-wave ≈ 0.1, last-wave ≈ 0.9). We read it from your update history, or fall back to a typical-owner prior.
    • The date. Arrival ≈ t0 + ln(p / (1 − p)) / k + region_lag. The 80% window is that ± 1.2816·σ (the 10th/90th percentiles of a normal). In the app we also run a Monte-Carlo simulation for the full distribution; the median + window match the formula.
    • FSD. A new FSD version ships inside a specific OS build — so FSD timing is the OS prediction for whichever build carries it, never earlier. Most builds don't change FSD at all.
    • Honesty. Bands are modelled, not yet fully back-tested against real per-car timing — treat dates as educated estimates, not promises.
    🔒 Security & privacy no spin, no understating it

    You should be skeptical of giving any app access to your Tesla. Good. So here's the straight version — including the scary part.

    😬 “Why does Tesla's screen ask for location, ownership, superchargers…?!”

    Because Tesla's permissions are all-or-nothing. There is no “just the software version” option — vehicle_device_data is the narrowest read scope that includes your version, and Tesla bundles everything else into it. That consent screen lists everything the scope could cover, not what wenFSD actually touches. We ask for that one scope and nothing more — no location scope, no command scope. We don't love how broad Tesla made it either.

    • 🎯 What we actually read: our code makes exactly one kind of data call — vehicle_data?endpoints=vehicle_state. That returns your software version and any pending-update status. We never call the location, drive, charge, supercharger, or ownership endpoints. Not once.
    • 🗺️ Your location: we do not request Tesla's separate location scope, never fetch drive/location data, and store none of it. We don't know — or want to know — where your car is or where you've driven.
    • 💾 What we store: only your software version, region, hardware, and any pending update. No location, no trips, no odometer, no name, no ownership records. Check the schema yourself if you'd like.
    • 🔑 We never see your password. You log in on Tesla's own page (standard OAuth). We only receive a token, encrypted at rest (AES-256-GCM), used only over HTTPS.
    • 🛑 It can't do anything to your car. No command scope means no drive, steer, unlock, open, honk, or charge — those capabilities aren't in the grant at all.
    • 🚗 Don't want to grant any of that? Don't. “Add by VIN” gives you the full prediction with zero login and zero Tesla access. Connecting is a convenience, never a requirement. Honestly, if the screen worries you, just use Add by VIN.
    • 🧹 Leave anytime. Disconnect in-app, delete your data in one click, or revoke us entirely from Tesla Account → Security → Third-Party Apps. Gone is gone.
    • 🍪 No cookies, no trackers, no ad-tech, nothing sold. Visit counts use a salted daily hash — we don't even store your IP.
    • 🫡 The honest limit: the grant permits more than we use — that's Tesla's coarse design, not our choice — so the only way to be 100% certain we only read the version is to read the code. So here it is.
    • 📖 Don't trust us — verify us. The entire thing, server included, is open source: github.com/ChristopherLaughlin/wenfsd. Search the code for vehicle_data and you'll find exactly one call — ?endpoints=vehicle_state. No location, no commands, no ownership. Receipts, not promises.

    Still uneasy? Totally reasonable — use Add by VIN and grant nothing. Or read every line: the source. More in the Privacy policy · Terms · License. We'd much rather you ask than worry.